The Optimal Redemption Schedule of Serial Municipal Debt: A Dynamic Reconciliation of Revenues,Reinvestment Rates and the Term Structure

The purpose of our research is to developan algorithm that optimally schedules municipaldebt redemptions. It is our hypothesis thatsegmented investor demand, the existing termstructure, the temporal behavior of municipalproject revenues and reinvestment opportunitiesfor interim revenue surpluses are all factorswhich should impact the optimal debt schedulingproblem in a unique and economically meaningfulway. For example, investor preference for shortermaturities and an upward sloping term structureof interest rates should, ceteris paribus,increase the proportion of debt scheduled to berepaid early in the redemption horizon. Ifinvestor demand is limited to a relatively smallgeographic area, such limited demand should bereflected in higher yields. If municipal projectrevenues increase over time then a largerproportion of the debt should be scheduled to beredeemed later. Unfortunately, realisticacknowledgements of the nature of the municipaldebt financing problem create an objectivefunction and a set of constraints which are fartoo complex to yield simple reduced formpresentations of the optimal principalredemptions. Consequently, solutions to theoptimal debt schedule and tests of theconjectures articulated above weresimulated.     

Benefits, consumerism and an "ownership society"

Compared to the generations preceding them, baby boomers assume more of both decision-making and financial responsibility for their health care and retirement. This article reviews the changing health and retirement plan landscape, and describes the plans, products and features available to the baby boom generation. It then describes how employers can become educators in order to help boomers best manage their increased responsibility for their health care and retirement.     

Problems in the estimation and interpretation of the reliability of survey data

In this paper I discuss several of the difficulties involved in estimating the reliability of survey measurement. Reliability is defined on the basis of classical true-score theory, as the correlational consistency of multiple measures of the same construct, net of true change. This concept is presented within the framework of a theoretical discussion of the sources of error in survey data and the design requirements for separating response variation into components representing such response consistency and measurement errors. Discussion focuses on the potential sources of random and nonrandom errors, including “invalidity” of measurement, the term frequently used to refer to components of method variance. Problems with the estimation of these components are enumerated and discussed with respect to both cross-sectional and panel designs. Empirical examples are given of the estimation of the quantities of interest, which are the basis of a discussion of the interpretational difficulties encountered in reliability estimation. Data are drawn from the ISR's Quality of Life surveys, the National Election Studies and the NORC's General Social Surveys. The general conclusion is that both cross-sectional and panel estimates of measurement reliability are desirable, but for the purposes of isolating the random component of error, panel designs are probably the most advantageous.     

From restricted to complex exchange and beyond: social marketing’s change agenda

ABSTRACT

The forward thinking body of social marketing knowledge, rooted in commercial marketing tools, suffers from two potentially interlinked crisis of identity. First, there is the question of behavioural change to address difficult social problems. This embraces the development of co-ordinated multi-domain approaches for large scale social transformation. Second, there is the concept of exchange, the defining characteristic of social marketing yet problematic and the least researched of its benchmark criteria. Recognising the centrality of exchange, we address the broadening social marketing discourse, suggesting a focus beyond restricted to complex exchanges. This paper presents the insights from the application of Interactive Management, a system-based methodology, embracing a systemic change and a complex exchange agenda. Our case study finds the contexts for restricted and complex exchanges through barriers as well as structural and influence maps. Understanding complex exchanges closes the gap between the theoretical and practical debates surrounding contemporary social marketing and the role and function of exchange theory.     

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASPECTS OF PETROLEUM AND MILITARY SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF

Geologic estimates of remaining global petroleum resources place about 50% in the Persian Gulf. Production costs are estimated at $5 per barrel there and $15 per barrel in the North Sea and Alaska. According to mathematical results derived from depletion theory, the present value of economic rent from oil is on the order of $20 trillion. This article uses game theory to explain the $15–$20 per barrel price band that existed from 1986 to 1999. New economic forces have displaced this previously stable pattern; a new price range of $23–$30 is emerging. International trade in petroleum and conventional weapons are analyzed with econometric methods; the occurrence of nuclear weapons capability in the Persian Gulf region is explored.     

The invariance principle in baseball: new evidence

This article considers the change in revenue sharing in Major League Baseball that occurred prior to the 2007 season and its effects on parity via its effects on marginal revenues. Based on the results from an empirical specification for team revenue, we find evidence that the reduction in revenue sharing increased marginal revenue by more for large market clubs than for small market clubs, despite holding constant other differences in how small and large market club revenues are determined. The upshot of this result is that the modest reduction in revenue sharing could have worsened league parity by 11 to 17 points in winning percentage between small and large market clubs, although other factors affect parity as well. The well-known invariance principle in the economics of sport literature does not appear to hold; however, the current consensus of theoretical models is not confirmed.     

Price impact in Nash equilibria

Finance and Stochastics - We prove global existence of a continuous-time Nash equilibrium with endogenous persistent and exogenous temporary price impact. Relative to the analogous Radner and...